The latest numbers from Indiana were just released by SurveyUSA. McCain now has a solid 6 point lead (a 7 point change over a 60 day period).
McCain is now projected by RCP to win the electoral college by 10.
The just published CA exit poll has Clinton at 50.8, Obama at 44.6 excluding mail in votes.
The political futures markets (intrade) are moving heavily today. Here are the predictions
Clinton: NY, NJ, MA, AZ, AR, MO, NM, TN
Obama: CA, GA, IL, AL, KS, CO, MN, UT
Tossup: CT, ND, DE, ID, AK
Note the CA prediction, which was trending Clinton this morning, moved almost immediately after the release of the Field Poll data.
I will update as changes occur.
I've become a poll junky :-( I know it's sad. I'll get rehab after this contest is over.
National:
Rasmussen - Clinton: 45 Obama: 37
( +2 for Clinton since yesterday )
IL:
Chicago Tribune - Obama: 55 Clinton: 24
AL:
Rasmussen - Clinton: 46 Obama: 41
InsiderAdvatage - Clinton 46 Obama: 40
TN:
Rasmussen - Clinton: 49 Obama: 35
MO:
Rasmussen - Clinton: 47 Obama: 38
A number of recent diaries on MyDD and OpenLeft created a rather rancorous debate over the current state of the democratic nomination race.
In an attempted to address some of the debate point I have assembled a delegate battle-card that, hopefully, addresses a number of various posters concerns.
The battle-card forecasts delegate allocation up-to and including Tsunami Tuesday (but excluding FL and MI).
Summary:
Clinton will have a 100+ delegate lead after 2/5.
The final SurveyUSA poll of people who either have voted or are expected to vote in todays primary in Florida.
Hillary Clinton 52%
Barack Obama 28%
John Edwards 13%
It is interesting to note that neither the SC results nor the Kennedy Endorsement has had an impact. In fact, Clinton's spread increased by 4% in the last 24 hours.
Most striking is the fact that over 80% of Latino Democrats voted for Clinton, with 8% remaining undecided. Only 8% of Latino voters support Barack Obama. Obama did win almost 70% of the African American voters.
The latest Tsunami Tuesday polls, take before the SC result, show Clinton will a double digit lead in all states (for which polls are available) except Illinois.
The bulk of the mainstream media is focusing on race as the voters of South Carolina head to the polls today.
· WI-08: Wingnut plans to run as "conservative independent" (desmoinesdem)
· 50 percent of southerners say Obama better president than Bush (desmoinesdem)
· What Yesterday Says About Young Voters (Mike Connery)
· Max Blumenthal on the dysfunctional movement driving the GOP (Mike Connery)
· IA-Gov: Culver launches second tv ad (desmoinesdem)
· Hilarious Vid On Why We Must Vote No On Issue 2!! (Cliff Schecter)
· NY-23: Scozzafava Drops Out! (lipris)
· NY-23: Pataki Goes Rogue, Endorses Teabagger Darling Doug Hoffman (lipris)
· Dunne Considering Run For VT-Gov (Nathan Empsall)
· McGovern Grandson Looks to Challenge Thune in 2010 (Jonathan Singer)
· IA-03: Two potential challengers for Boswell (desmoinesdem)
· NJ-Gov: Daggett Goes After Christie and Corzine (Jonathan Singer)
